UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Ribas: Betting Predictions and Odds (Jan 11)

On January 11, 2025, MMA fans are in for a treat as Mackenzie Dern faces off against Amanda Ribas in a highly anticipated strawweight clash. This UFC Fight Night promises high-octane action, pitting two of the most skilled and charismatic fighters in the octagon against each other.

With an impressive record of 14 wins, 5 losses, and 0 draws, Mackenzie Dern brings her elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) skills and aggressive fighting style to the table, making her a formidable threat on the ground. Meanwhile, Amanda Ribas, holding a record of 13 wins, 5 losses, and 0 draws, showcases versatility with sharp striking and effective grappling, aiming to secure a decisive victory.

This article dives into the strengths and weaknesses of both fighters, factors that could influence the outcome, and betting insights for those looking to add excitement to the match. Let’s break down this electrifying matchup!

Mackenzie Dern Analysis

• Full Name: Mackenzie Lynne Dern
• Record: 14-5-0 (14 wins, 5 losses, 0 draws)
• Height: 5’4” (163 cm)
• Weight: 115 lbs (52 kg)
• Nationality: American (with Brazilian roots)
• Primary Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ)

Strengths

1. Elite Grappling Skills
   Mackenzie Dern is one of the best grapplers in women’s MMA. As a multiple-time BJJ world champion, her ability to secure submissions with precision and control is unmatched. Her transitions and positional dominance make her a lethal opponent on the ground.
2. Resilience and Grit
   Dern has displayed an unyielding spirit in tough situations, often adapting and pushing through to the final bell. Her warrior mentality is one of her standout qualities.
3. Improving Striking Game
   While not her primary strength, Dern has made noticeable strides in her striking, showing increased confidence and technique in recent bouts.

Weaknesses

1. Takedown Defense and Wrestling
   Despite her grappling prowess, Dern struggles to enforce her ground game against opponents with strong takedown defense or effective distance management.
2. Cardio Concerns
   Dern’s performance tends to decline in high-paced fights or longer bouts, where her endurance becomes a liability.
3. Reliance on Grappling
   While her striking has improved, Dern remains heavily dependent on her ground game. Opponents with strong striking and movement can exploit this limitation.

Strategic Outlook

To win, Dern needs to close the distance and bring the fight to the ground, where her skill set shines. She should focus on constant pressure and capitalize on any opportunity to secure a takedown or pull guard to initiate her submission game.

Notable Fights

• Vs. Randa Markos (2020): A dominant ground performance leading to an armbar submission.
• Vs. Tecia Torres (2022): Showcased improved striking in a closely contested split-decision win.
• Vs. Virna Jandiroba (2021): Demonstrated adaptability and resilience in a technical battle.

Amanda Ribas Analysis

• Full Name: Amanda Ribas
• Record: 13-5-0 (13 wins, 5 losses, 0 draws)
• Height: 5’4” (163 cm)
• Weight: 115 lbs (52 kg)
• Nationality: Brazilian
• Primary Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) and Judo

Strengths

1. Versatility
   Ribas is a well-rounded fighter, adept at striking, grappling, and securing takedowns. Her ability to transition fluidly between disciplines makes her a tough puzzle to solve.
2. Effective Takedowns
   With a strong judo base, Ribas excels in clinch exchanges and executing throws like the uchi-mata and harai-goshi, allowing her to control the fight on the ground.
3. High Volume and Cardio
   Ribas maintains a relentless pace throughout fights, using constant movement and a high output of strikes to overwhelm her opponents.
4. Charismatic Personality
   Outside the cage, Ribas is known for her infectious energy and positivity, which has won her a loyal fanbase.

Weaknesses

1. Defensive Striking
   Ribas has shown vulnerabilities against opponents with crisp striking and knockout power, leaving openings for counterattacks.
2. Consistency Against Top-Level Opponents
   While talented, Ribas has struggled against elite competition, highlighting areas for improvement.
3. Reliance on Rhythm
   Fighters who disrupt Ribas’ pace and dictate the flow of the fight can expose her difficulties in adapting mid-bout.

Strategic Outlook

Ribas needs to leverage her movement and striking to keep the fight standing while using her judo for well-timed takedowns. Against a grappler like Dern, Ribas should avoid prolonged exchanges on the ground and focus on outworking her opponent with volume and precision.

Notable Fights

• Vs. Paige VanZant (2020): A first-round submission victory showcasing her grappling prowess.
• Vs. Virna Jandiroba (2022): A technical fight that highlighted her adaptability and resilience.
• Vs. Marina Rodriguez (2021): Despite a loss, Ribas demonstrated her toughness and technical skills against a top-tier striker.

UFC Betting Picks: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas

Here are seven betting picks for the January 11, 2025, matchup:

Match Winner

• Amanda Ribas (-187): At these odds, Ribas remains the favorite, with an implied probability of approximately 65.2%. Her well-rounded skill set, cardio, and ability to control the pace of the fight make her a strong contender to win, especially if she avoids prolonged grappling exchanges with Dern.
• Mackenzie Dern (+160): With these odds, Dern is the underdog, giving her an implied probability of 38.5% to win. Her path to victory lies in leveraging her elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu and capitalizing on any opportunities to take the fight to the ground.

These odds still suggest Ribas has a slight edge, but the value on Dern as a submission specialist may appeal to bettors seeking an underdog pick.

Total Rounds

• Over 4.5 Rounds (-205): Both fighters are durable and known for their technical prowess, suggesting a strong possibility of the fight going the distance.
• Under 4.5 Rounds (+170): If either fighter can capitalize on a decisive moment, such as a submission from Dern or an aggressive striking sequence from Ribas, the fight could end early.

Note: Odds are subject to change, so be sure to check the latest lines on Bet105 to get the best value for your wagers.