Underdogs and Upsets: Hidden Gems in March Madness Betting

Introduction

March Madness is one of the most exciting events in sports betting, known for its unpredictability, buzzer-beaters, and shocking upsets. While many bettors focus on high-seeded teams, underdogs often provide some of the best betting value. Identifying hidden gems among lower-seeded teams can lead to high payouts and long-term profitability.

This guide explores how to spot underdogs with upset potential, key betting strategies, and how to maximize profits during March Madness.

Why Underdogs Matter in March Madness Betting

March Madness is notorious for unexpected results. Lower-seeded teams regularly knock off favorites, creating opportunities for bettors who can identify live underdogs—teams with a realistic chance to win despite their odds.

Some of the biggest upsets in tournament history include:

• UMBC (16) vs. Virginia (1) – 2018: The first-ever No. 16 seed to defeat a No. 1 seed.
• Saint Peter’s (15) vs. Kentucky (2) – 2022: A massive upset that shocked the betting world.
• George Mason (11) in 2006: A Cinderella run to the Final Four.

These upsets illustrate that underdogs aren’t just lucky—they often have hidden advantages that the betting public overlooks.

Key Factors in Identifying March Madness Underdogs

Strength of Schedule and Battle-Tested Teams

Underdogs who played tougher schedules are often better prepared for high-pressure tournament games. A mid-major team with strong non-conference wins may be undervalued compared to a high-major team with a weaker schedule.

Experienced Rosters and Senior Leadership

Teams with experienced players tend to perform better in March. Seniors and upperclassmen bring stability, which can be crucial in close tournament games.

Defensive Efficiency

Defense wins championships—and upsets. Teams with strong defensive metrics (such as adjusted defensive efficiency in KenPom rankings) often keep games close, giving them a chance to win late.

Three-Point Shooting and Free Throws

March Madness is a guard-driven tournament. Teams that shoot the three well and convert free throws consistently have a better chance of pulling off an upset.

Coaching and Tournament Experience

Coaches with a history of success in March Madness are more likely to guide their teams through tough matchups. Look for teams with coaches who have previously engineered deep runs.

Best Betting Strategies for March Madness Upsets

Moneyline Betting on Underdogs

Instead of taking the point spread, consider betting the moneyline on live underdogs. Since March Madness features high-variance games, the potential reward for correctly picking an upset outweighs the risk.

Betting Against the Public

Public betting often overvalues high-seeded teams, leading to inflated lines. If the majority of bets are on a favorite, there may be value in backing the underdog at better odds.

First-Half Betting on Underdogs

Many underdogs start strong before fading late due to depth issues. First-half bets allow you to capitalize on a team’s early energy and preparation without worrying about a full-game collapse.

Live Betting Underdogs

If a favorite starts slow, their live odds will adjust, creating an opportunity to bet on the underdog at a more favorable number. This strategy is especially effective if an underdog has a strong defense that keeps games close.

Hedging Futures Bets

If you’ve placed a longshot future bet on an underdog, you can hedge your position by betting on the opposing team in later rounds to guarantee profit.

Notable Underdog Trends in March Madness

Double-Digit Seeds Reaching the Sweet 16

At least one double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 in nearly every tournament since 2010. This trend highlights the value in backing lower-seeded teams early in the tournament.

12 vs. 5 Seed Upset Trend

Historically, 12 seeds win about 35-40% of their matchups against 5 seeds, making these games prime targets for upset bets.

Mid-Majors with Elite Metrics

Teams from non-Power 5 conferences with strong metrics in KenPom (adjusted efficiency) and NET rankings are often undervalued by sportsbooks.

How to Maximize Your March Madness Bets with bet105

For bettors looking to capitalize on underdogs and upsets, bet105 provides:

• Competitive odds on moneyline underdogs
• Live betting options to take advantage of momentum swings
• Reduced juice betting to maximize profits
• Fast crypto payouts for seamless transactions

Start betting on March Madness today at bet105.