How to Calculate Expected Value in Betting

Introduction

Expected Value (EV) is one of the most important concepts in sports betting, providing a mathematical approach to determining whether a wager is profitable in the long run. Unlike casual betting, where decisions are often based on gut feelings or team loyalty, understanding EV allows bettors to make data-driven choices that maximize their returns over time.

Knowing how to calculate EV helps distinguish between bets that offer long-term profitability (+EV) and those that are likely to lose money (-EV). This guide explains how EV works, provides a step-by-step formula for calculating it, and explores how professional bettors use it to gain an edge.

What is Expected Value in Betting?

Expected Value represents the theoretical amount a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet if the same wager were placed multiple times under identical conditions. It accounts for both the probability of winning and the potential payout, making it a crucial tool for identifying valuable bets.

Bets with positive EV (+EV) indicate a profitable edge, meaning the odds provided by the sportsbook offer value compared to the true probability of an outcome. Conversely, bets with negative EV (-EV) suggest that the bookmaker’s odds are not favorable for the bettor.

The Expected Value Formula

The formula for calculating EV is:

EV = (Probability of Winning × Potential Profit) – (Probability of Losing × Amount Wagered)

For example, consider a bet with:

• Odds of +200 (decimal odds 3.00)
• A $100 wager
• A true probability estimation of 40% (0.40) for the bet to win

Using the formula:

EV = (0.40 × $200) – (0.60 × $100)
EV = ($80) – ($60)
EV = +$20

Since the EV is positive, this bet is profitable in the long run. A negative EV would indicate that the odds do not offer enough value, and the bet should be avoided.

Why Expected Value Matters in Sports Betting

Professional bettors rely on EV rather than short-term results. Even losing bets can be good if they have a positive expected value, as long-term betting success depends on consistently finding +EV opportunities.

By calculating EV, bettors can:

• Identify overpriced or underpriced odds in the market
• Reduce losses by avoiding negative-value bets
• Build a profitable long-term betting strategy
• Gain an edge over recreational bettors who rely on intuition rather than math

Bookmakers adjust odds to account for public perception, meaning that sharp bettors who focus on EV can capitalize on market inefficiencies.

How bet105 Helps Bettors Maximize Expected Value

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For those looking to apply EV calculations to their betting strategy, bet105 offers sharp odds and no limits on winning players, making it a top choice for serious sports bettors.

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